Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 2020 | 2508 | 26463 | 83 | 9 | 356 | 492 |
| October 16 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 374 | 500 |
| October 17 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 347 | 458 |
| October 18 2020 | 2635 | 27007 | 86 | 9 | 371 | 512 |
| October 19 2020 | 2674 | 27683 | 90 | 9 | 366 | 522 |
| October 20 2020 | 2736 | 27869 | 99 | 11 | 395 | 552 |
| October 21 2020 | 2783 | 27993 | 99 | 12 | 390 | 572 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.1 | 4.1% | 16 | 0.14% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 6.0 | 14.9% | 58 | 0.43% | 102 | 0.75% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 12.3 | 25.1% | 98 | 0.47% | 141 | 0.67% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.3 | 13.3% | 52 | 0.38% | 72 | 0.53% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 4.3 | 10.3% | 40 | 0.38% | 65 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4.9 | 9.7% | 38 | 0.3% | 51 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 6.0 | 13.1% | 51 | 0.44% | 69 | 0.6% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.7 | 9.5% | 37 | 0.35% | 50 | 0.48% |
| All ages | 47 | 44.6 | 100% | 390 | 0.37% | 572 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 2020 | 959 | 16759 | 36 | 2 | 310 | 364 |
| October 16 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 350 | 407 |
| October 17 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 319 | 387 |
| October 18 2020 | 1032 | 16975 | 42 | 2 | 302 | 391 |
| October 19 2020 | 1124 | 17459 | 43 | 5 | 361 | 475 |
| October 20 2020 | 1130 | 17583 | 48 | 6 | 343 | 463 |
| October 21 2020 | 1215 | 17691 | 48 | 7 | 403 | 517 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.4 | 3% | 12 | 0.15% | 15 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.1 | 8.4% | 34 | 0.4% | 39 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 7.7 | 17.1% | 69 | 0.97% | 90 | 1.27% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 7.3 | 15.9% | 64 | 0.76% | 84 | 1% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 6.6 | 14.4% | 58 | 0.75% | 80 | 1.03% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 7.7 | 18.1% | 73 | 0.75% | 89 | 0.92% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 6.1 | 12.4% | 50 | 0.59% | 63 | 0.75% |
| 70+ | 13 | 6.4 | 11.7% | 47 | 0.66% | 59 | 0.83% |
| All ages | 85 | 46.9 | 100% | 403 | 0.62% | 517 | 0.8% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 2020 | 701 | 10313 | 34 | 6 | 179 | 203 |
| October 16 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 202 | 226 |
| October 17 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 195 | 214 |
| October 18 2020 | 781 | 11006 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 259 |
| October 19 2020 | 803 | 11335 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 281 |
| October 20 2020 | 827 | 11393 | 35 | 6 | 229 | 299 |
| October 21 2020 | 858 | 11450 | 37 | 6 | 240 | 323 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 2020 | 3657 | 29008 | 71 | 11 | 321 | 452 |
| October 16 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 345 | 473 |
| October 17 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 319 | 434 |
| October 18 2020 | 3758 | 30277 | 75 | 15 | 317 | 459 |
| October 19 2020 | 3817 | 30695 | 77 | 15 | 331 | 481 |
| October 20 2020 | 3868 | 30854 | 78 | 15 | 352 | 495 |
| October 21 2020 | 3907 | 31009 | 79 | 15 | 372 | 508 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.4% | 9 | 0.08% | 11 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 4.3 | 11.3% | 42 | 0.25% | 61 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 12.4 | 26.1% | 97 | 0.46% | 144 | 0.68% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 5.4 | 12.9% | 48 | 0.35% | 62 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 5.7 | 13.7% | 51 | 0.38% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.9 | 12.4% | 46 | 0.32% | 62 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 5.6 | 13.2% | 49 | 0.35% | 65 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.7 | 8.1% | 30 | 0.23% | 42 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 39 | 43.1 | 100% | 372 | 0.31% | 508 | 0.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 2020 | 12072 | 212443 | 450 | 46 | 1558 | 1871 |
| October 16 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1625 | 2079 |
| October 17 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1562 | 1957 |
| October 18 2020 | 12509 | 223923 | 456 | 46 | 1668 | 2057 |
| October 19 2020 | 12516 | 228420 | 463 | 46 | 1481 | 2002 |
| October 20 2020 | 12821 | 229152 | 468 | 46 | 1581 | 2150 |
| October 21 2020 | 13121 | 229610 | 473 | 46 | 1700 | 2387 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 21 | 9.4 | 4.9% | 84 | 0.14% | 120 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 26 | 22.0 | 12.3% | 209 | 0.29% | 318 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 42.1 | 23.4% | 397 | 0.38% | 561 | 0.54% |
| 30-39 | 49 | 30.0 | 16.2% | 276 | 0.36% | 392 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 39 | 27.0 | 15.1% | 257 | 0.39% | 347 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 51 | 25.1 | 14.1% | 240 | 0.37% | 318 | 0.48% |
| 60-69 | 23 | 16.7 | 9.2% | 157 | 0.29% | 214 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 14 | 8.4 | 4.7% | 80 | 0.16% | 117 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 300 | 180.9 | 100% | 1700 | 0.31% | 2387 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 2020 | 162325 | 1579844 | 8892 | 1553 | 27966 | 37164 |
| October 16 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 29807 | 38280 |
| October 17 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 27488 | 35388 |
| October 18 2020 | 170114 | 1665459 | 9154 | 1588 | 28284 | 37451 |
| October 19 2020 | 173891 | 1703813 | 9319 | 1600 | 29073 | 39532 |
| October 20 2020 | 178482 | 1712883 | 9537 | 1633 | 30922 | 42103 |
| October 21 2020 | 182687 | 1718564 | 9704 | 1681 | 32451 | 43989 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 171 | 129.0 | 3.6% | 1173 | 0.18% | 1551 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 384 | 326.0 | 9.3% | 3034 | 0.4% | 4128 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 734 | 590.7 | 17.1% | 5563 | 0.73% | 7637 | 1.01% |
| 30-39 | 663 | 554.1 | 16% | 5203 | 0.69% | 7090 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 621 | 504.7 | 14.6% | 4744 | 0.68% | 6477 | 0.93% |
| 50-59 | 695 | 578.6 | 16.9% | 5491 | 0.67% | 7333 | 0.9% |
| 60-69 | 501 | 410.3 | 12% | 3904 | 0.52% | 5315 | 0.7% |
| 70+ | 436 | 350.7 | 10.3% | 3339 | 0.52% | 4458 | 0.7% |
| All ages | 4205 | 3444.1 | 100% | 32451 | 0.56% | 43989 | 0.76% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.7 | 75 | 67.4 | 44.6 | 34.4 | 16.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 46.9 | 22.4 | 24% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71.4 | 25.7 | 11.7 | 12.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 36.9 | 67.7 | 43.1 | 33.1 | 12.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.7 | 44.7 | 54 | 180.9 | 128.7 | 6.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.6 | 54.5 | 100.9 | 3444.1 | 2394.6 | 13.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 16.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.39 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-11 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1780"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges