Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

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Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 15 2020 2508 26463 83 9 356 492
October 16 2020 2558 26793 86 9 374 500
October 17 2020 2558 26793 86 9 347 458
October 18 2020 2635 27007 86 9 371 512
October 19 2020 2674 27683 90 9 366 522
October 20 2020 2736 27869 99 11 395 552
October 21 2020 2783 27993 99 12 390 572
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 2.1 4.1% 16 0.14% 22 0.19%
10-19 3 6.0 14.9% 58 0.43% 102 0.75%
20-29 14 12.3 25.1% 98 0.47% 141 0.67%
30-39 6 5.3 13.3% 52 0.38% 72 0.53%
40-49 6 4.3 10.3% 40 0.38% 65 0.62%
50-59 8 4.9 9.7% 38 0.3% 51 0.41%
60-69 5 6.0 13.1% 51 0.44% 69 0.6%
70+ 2 3.7 9.5% 37 0.35% 50 0.48%
All ages 47 44.6 100% 390 0.37% 572 0.55%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 15 2020 959 16759 36 2 310 364
October 16 2020 1017 16871 40 2 350 407
October 17 2020 1017 16871 40 2 319 387
October 18 2020 1032 16975 42 2 302 391
October 19 2020 1124 17459 43 5 361 475
October 20 2020 1130 17583 48 6 343 463
October 21 2020 1215 17691 48 7 403 517
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.4 3% 12 0.15% 15 0.19%
10-19 4 4.1 8.4% 34 0.4% 39 0.46%
20-29 6 7.7 17.1% 69 0.97% 90 1.27%
30-39 17 7.3 15.9% 64 0.76% 84 1%
40-49 12 6.6 14.4% 58 0.75% 80 1.03%
50-59 15 7.7 18.1% 73 0.75% 89 0.92%
60-69 16 6.1 12.4% 50 0.59% 63 0.75%
70+ 13 6.4 11.7% 47 0.66% 59 0.83%
All ages 85 46.9 100% 403 0.62% 517 0.8%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 15 2020 701 10313 34 6 179 203
October 16 2020 730 10363 34 6 202 226
October 17 2020 730 10363 34 6 195 214
October 18 2020 781 11006 35 6 228 259
October 19 2020 803 11335 35 6 228 281
October 20 2020 827 11393 35 6 229 299
October 21 2020 858 11450 37 6 240 323

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 15 2020 3657 29008 71 11 321 452
October 16 2020 3718 29103 72 12 345 473
October 17 2020 3718 29103 72 12 319 434
October 18 2020 3758 30277 75 15 317 459
October 19 2020 3817 30695 77 15 331 481
October 20 2020 3868 30854 78 15 352 495
October 21 2020 3907 31009 79 15 372 508
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.1 2.4% 9 0.08% 11 0.09%
10-19 1 4.3 11.3% 42 0.25% 61 0.37%
20-29 15 12.4 26.1% 97 0.46% 144 0.68%
30-39 5 5.4 12.9% 48 0.35% 62 0.46%
40-49 3 5.7 13.7% 51 0.38% 61 0.45%
50-59 5 5.9 12.4% 46 0.32% 62 0.44%
60-69 8 5.6 13.2% 49 0.35% 65 0.46%
70+ 2 2.7 8.1% 30 0.23% 42 0.32%
All ages 39 43.1 100% 372 0.31% 508 0.43%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 15 2020 12072 212443 450 46 1558 1871
October 16 2020 12296 214057 450 46 1625 2079
October 17 2020 12296 214057 450 46 1562 1957
October 18 2020 12509 223923 456 46 1668 2057
October 19 2020 12516 228420 463 46 1481 2002
October 20 2020 12821 229152 468 46 1581 2150
October 21 2020 13121 229610 473 46 1700 2387
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 21 9.4 4.9% 84 0.14% 120 0.2%
10-19 26 22.0 12.3% 209 0.29% 318 0.45%
20-29 77 42.1 23.4% 397 0.38% 561 0.54%
30-39 49 30.0 16.2% 276 0.36% 392 0.51%
40-49 39 27.0 15.1% 257 0.39% 347 0.53%
50-59 51 25.1 14.1% 240 0.37% 318 0.48%
60-69 23 16.7 9.2% 157 0.29% 214 0.39%
70+ 14 8.4 4.7% 80 0.16% 117 0.24%
All ages 300 180.9 100% 1700 0.31% 2387 0.44%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 15 2020 162325 1579844 8892 1553 27966 37164
October 16 2020 166186 1590569 9027 1574 29807 38280
October 17 2020 166186 1590569 9027 1574 27488 35388
October 18 2020 170114 1665459 9154 1588 28284 37451
October 19 2020 173891 1703813 9319 1600 29073 39532
October 20 2020 178482 1712883 9537 1633 30922 42103
October 21 2020 182687 1718564 9704 1681 32451 43989
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 171 129.0 3.6% 1173 0.18% 1551 0.24%
10-19 384 326.0 9.3% 3034 0.4% 4128 0.55%
20-29 734 590.7 17.1% 5563 0.73% 7637 1.01%
30-39 663 554.1 16% 5203 0.69% 7090 0.94%
40-49 621 504.7 14.6% 4744 0.68% 6477 0.93%
50-59 695 578.6 16.9% 5491 0.67% 7333 0.9%
60-69 501 410.3 12% 3904 0.52% 5315 0.7%
70+ 436 350.7 10.3% 3339 0.52% 4458 0.7%
All ages 4205 3444.1 100% 32451 0.56% 43989 0.76%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
54.7 75 67.4 44.6 34.4 16.9%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
80 46.9 22.4 24%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
71.4 25.7 11.7 12.8%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
43 36.9 67.7 43.1 33.1 12.8%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
43.7 44.7 54 180.9 128.7 6.4%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
75.6 54.5 100.9 3444.1 2394.6 13.8%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 16.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.39 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-11 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1780"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red